15 years after the last shock to the housing market and following almost unbroken growth since then there now appears to be a daily ritual amongst economists of predicting whether the market is heading for a full-scale crash or a soft landing?

The problems started in the US and over there, there is a broad consensus that things will get much worse before they get better. House prices are forecast to continue to fall and, as inflation and unemployment continue to rise so consumer incomes will be squeezed. A recession cannot therefore be ruled out.

In the UK, whilst we are in danger of talking ourselves into a recession which I don’t think will happen, there is no such consensus about the housing market. Optimists such as the Nationwide and Phil Spencer the presenter of Channel 4’s programme Location, Location Location believe there is no need to panic. They feel, that whilst the continuing credit crunch will make things uncomfortable throughout 2008, the ongoing shortage of housing stock, coupled with the cuts in interest rates and the increasing number of tenants will ensure a soft landing.

But pessimists led by the International Monetary Fund paint a much bleaker picture. The IMF believe that the UK housing market has been overpriced by as much as 40% for years and investment banks such as Morgan Stanley predict that prices will decline by 10% this year and thereby revert to those of early 2007.

Which ever camp is right and I tend to side with the optimists, believing that prices will either stabilise or fall by no more than 5% this year the key to sustainable housing market growth lies in the hands of first time buyers who are finding it more difficult than ever to get on the housing ladder. According to the Halifax only 300,000 first time buyers entered the market last year which is the lowest level since 1980.

In theory young buyers are better off than ever. They are better educated, harder working and better paid, but the tightening of lending criteria and the shortage of homes make it almost impossible to get a mortgage. It’s all very well for the Government to proclaim that we need to build 240,000 homes a year to keep up with the current demand, but according to the Home Builders Federation we can only manage to build 180,000 each year. What therefore is the answer?

Apart from incentivising first time buyers by way of more affordable housing and the relaxation of stamp duty one sure fired way is shared ownership and for this reason I think this year we will see more lenders than ever offering these schemes.

I do have, however, a problem with these schemes. As well intentioned as they are, first time buyers are limited by the number of properties available and by ever increasing waiting lists. Far better then to look at Joint Equity Ltd. They offer a shared ownership scheme with no restrictions and no waiting lists. As a first time buyer it may not be the cheapest option available but it may well be one of the best.